Page 48 - Nuvama | IC Report 2023

• DE-GLOBALISATION • DEREGULATION • DEBT • DEMOGRAPHY • DEMOCRACY

Demography: India young in ageing world

To paraphrase Karl Marx, a spectre is haunting the world—the spectre of ageing. Population growth is
stagnating and ageing is accelerating. By 2050, 25% of the population of high-income countries will
have aged 65 as per the UN. Meanwhile, a shrinking workforce is leading to fading dynamism, anaemic
growth and strained social care systems in several parts of the world.
In this age of ageing, India stands young. Over the next decade or so, 20% of the world’s workforce
will come from India. What’s more, this demographic dividend critically complements some of India’s
other advantages such as low indebtedness and ongoing deregulation—an empowering combination
unmatched in the contemporary world.
From a Malthusian standpoint, a stagnating population growth in large parts of the world should be a
cause for celebration. Before Malthus, hunger and famines were blamed on either innate sinfulness of
Thomas Robert Malthus FRS the poor or selfishness of the rich. But Malthus famously traced the causes of hunger and famine to
was an English cleric, scholar unchecked population growth. He postulated that population growth by nature is exponential, whereas
and influential economist
in the fields of political growth of food supply and other resources is linear.
economy and demography

Exhibit 1: It took 697 years for the world population to double
World has seen 700 years from 0.25 billion in 837 to 0.5 billion in 1534
exponential
growth in 1534
population over 594 years (0.375 to 0.75 billion)
the past few 600 years
centuries 1737
500 years

400 years

300 years
260 years (0.5 to 1 billion)
1803
125 years (1 to 2 billion)
200 years

100 years 1928 47 years (2 to 4 billion)
1960
1960 48 years (4 to 8 billion) - 2023
1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100

Source: Our world in data, Nuvama Research

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