Nuvama

Q2FY26 EBITDA (INR98bn; +2x YoY/+1% QoQ) beat our/consensus estimate led by strong GRM, partly offset by lower crude throughput/domestic sales; LPG under-recoveries rose to INR137bn.

Result Update

Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd

Strong GRM lifts Q2 earnings

Q2FY26 EBITDA/PAT came in at INR69bn/68bn, up 2.5x/6x YoY led by strong refining, partly offset by subdued marketing margin, below estimate throughput and domestic sales; LPG under-recoveries rose.

Q2 beat; guidance cut déjà vu

Management has further cut guidance for transmission volume and expects current petchem margin environment to continue in H2FY26.

Q2 miss on weak margins; guidance cut

Management has cut FY26E EBITDA margin guidance to INR8–9.5/scm from INR9–9.5/scm on the back of weak INR, lower price of alternate liquid fuels, margin dilutive UEPL merger and inferior gas sourcing mix.

Result Update

Indian Oil Corporation Ltd

Refining outperforms; capex high

IOCL’s Q2FY26 EBITDA/PAT at INR146bn/76bn (+3x/+10x YoY) beat our and consensus estimates owing to robust GRM, inventory gains and petchem profitability, partly offset by muted marketing margins.

Result Update

Reliance Industries Ltd

NE ramp up; multi-decadal drivers

Three new big drivers – i) New Energy (NE) ecosystem is ramping up with cell facility starting next month. 10GW module/cell may add ~6% to FY27 consolidated PAT; PS-to-module value chain, 40GWh BESS, 3GW electrolyser to

Sector Update

Oil & Gas

October 06, 2025

RIL, OMCs to outperform led by refining

We forecast O&G’s Q2FY26E aggregate EBITDA would jump 26% YoY led by refining strength, partially offset by softness in other segments.

Company Update

Reliance Industries Ltd

AGM speech: Multi-decadal opportunity

RIL, at its AGM, guided for New Energy (NE) profits equalling O2C in five–seven years, strong Digital and Retail outlook, and huge O2C expansion.

Sector Update

Oil & Gas

August 19, 2025

RIL, OMCs offset weak gas midstream

We weave in management call highlights and outlook with Q1 review.

Result Update

Indian Oil Corporation Ltd

Earnings miss on weak GRMs and petchem

IOCL’s Q1FY26 EBITDA/PAT at INR126bn/INR57bn (+46%/+2x YoY) missed our/consensus estimates on the back of weak refining, petchem and inventory losses part offset by strong marketing margins.

Result Update

Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd

Marketing segment offsets weak refining

Q1FY26 EBITDA at INR97bn (+71% YoY/+24% QoQ) beat our estimate led by strong marketing segment earnings, partly offset by weak refining margins; LPG under-recoveries came in at INR21bn.

Result Update

Oil & Natural Gas Corpn Ltd

Beats Q1; guidance cut déjà vu

ONGC management has cut the production guidance for FY26E (4–7%) and FY27E (2–4%) as KG-98/2 peak production stands delayed to FY27E. Gas realisation is set to improve as the share of higher-priced (+20% to APM) New Well

Result Update

Gujarat State Petronet Ltd

Margin-driven beat; volumes suffer

GSPL’s Q1FY26 EBITDA of INR2bn (-33% YoY/+62% QoQ) beat our/consensus estimate by 8%/26% on 7% higher tariff, partially offset by a 4% volume miss, which fell 19% YoY due to weak demand.

Result Update

Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd

Marketing margins aid earnings

HPCL’s Q1FY26 EBITDA/PAT came in at INR76/44bn, up +3.6x/12x YoY, led by marketing outperformance, partly offset by weak GRM, inventory loss, lower Russian crude share and LPG under-recoveries.

Company Update

Reliance Industries Ltd

AGM 2025 – Anticipation galore

RIL will hold its AGM on 29th Aug-25 (2 pm); we list out key expectations, and likely announcements by the company.

Q1 in-line; new propane trading venture

GGL to enter propane/LPG distribution marketing for industrial customers; opex to rise on increase in commissions to dealers; management expects amalgamation scheme completion in Q3FY26.

Q1 miss; upside to margin on lower tariff

Tariff changes to result in INR0.7–1.3/scm cost savings; volume growth guidance steep at 10–11% for 2–3 years and exit 10mmscmd for FY26.

Q1 beat; guidance cut on soft demand

Management has cut guidance for transmission volume and flagged uncertainty over petchem. Our GAIL downgrade is culminating as the stock has corrected 24% since, and further pain is likely.

Q1 miss; capturing new demand markets

PLNG has converted the proposed 4mtpa FSRU terminal at Gopalpur to a land-based terminal at an incremental cost of INR41bn to cater to demand in Eastern India. The 5mtpa brownfield Dahej expansion is marginally delayed

Optical beat; FY26 volume guidance cut

Management has cut FY26E volume growth guidance on below-par Q1 for CNG while also seeing INR0.6–0.7/kg adverse impact of higher gas pipe transportation cost due to restructuring of unified tariff zones.

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