Page 90 - Nuvama | IC Report 2023

• MANUFACTURING • NEW ENERGY • URBANISATION • CONSUMPTION PREMIUMISATION • EQUITY SAVINGS CULT

Green H2 costs plunging; capacities soar 20x
Electricity makes up the bulk of cost (60–70%) for producing green hydrogen. Given renewable power
Green hydrogen costs are falling off the cliff, the cost of producing green hydrogen too shall fall further. Furthermore,
is hydrogen capital costs can go down too due to expected reductions in the cost of electrolysers as new projects
generated come up and existing ones scale up. Annual global PEM electrolysers’ manufacturing capacity is set to
entirely using shoot up to 100GW in 2030 (current: 3–7.5GW). With technology evolving, capex cost would eventually
renewable energy
halve from current levels.

6.0 Electrolyser price
Exhibit 8: USD 65/MWh
Cost reduction Electrolyser cost in 2020:
potential for USD 1 000/kW Electrolyser price
USD 20/MWh
Hydrogen cost (USD/kg H2) 5.0 Electrolyser cost in 2020: Electrolyser cost in 2050:
green hydrogen
4.0
USD 650/kW
USD 307/kW @ 1 TW
Installed capacity
Electrolyser cost in 2050:
3.0
Electrolyser cost in 2020:
USD 130/kW @ 5 TW
USD 1 000/kW
Installed capacity
2.0
USD 307/kW @ 1 TW
Electrolyser cost in 2020: Fossil fuel range Electrolyser cost in 2050:
Installed capacity
USD 650/kW
1.0 Electrolyser cost in 2050:
USD 130/kW @ 5 TW
Installed capacity
0
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Source: IRENA
6,000
Exhibit 9: 5,600
Capex costs to ALK Electrolyser
halve over long run
4,800 70%
(USD/kWe) 3,600 PEM Electrolyser
30%

2,400 2,800
1,800
1,400 1,500
1,200 850 900 1,000
700

0
Alkaline PEM SOEC
Today 2030 Long term
Source: Nuvama Research, IEA

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